Let’s say you are trying to make predictions about a variable. For example, maybe you are an engineer trying to keep track of how well the servers are running. It turns out that if you use the obvious approach advocated by e.g. frequentist statistics [1], you will have huge biases in what you pay attention to, compared to what you should pay attention to, because you will disregard important things in favor of big things. Let’s make a mathematical model of this.